Wednesday will be likely the most important day this week as the calendar consists of many macroeconomic releases. The main event is the FED’s meeting, however, there are many readings besides that could potentially affect various assets.
- 9:30 am BST - UK’s jobs report: Despite simmering political uncertainty surrounding the UK, the pound has performed quite well thus far this week. May’s CPI shored up the pound yesterday, and today’s jobs report could do the same. The consensuses point to the jobless rate to remain unchanged at 4.6% and an increase of jobless claims by 10k. However, the utmost reading will be wage date. There are concerns that real disposable income could be chipped away at higher inflation, for that reason changes of wages are so relevant. Expectations indicate 2% yoy and 2.4% yoy for weekly earnings ex bonuses and average weekly earnings respectively.
- 1:30 pm BST - US CPI and retail sales: Even as the FED’s meeting is likely to draw most of investors’ attention there are two macro prints worth looking at today as well. Needless to say, today’s data won’t impact on the FED’s rate decision, they could adjust traders’ perception with regard to what to expect from Chair Janet Yellen this evening. Let us remind, the FED-preferred inflation gauge PCE still hovers below its objective. Although, CPI isn’t the same what the PCE both metrics are strongly correlated to each other. Expectations see increases in CPI by 2% yoy and 1.9% yoy in core CPI. In turn, retails sales’ anticipations are 0.1% mom and 0.2% mom for the headline and the ex-auto reading.
- 3:30 pm BST - DoE crude oil stocks: The unexpected increase in oil stocks spelled out by the API yesterday was really bearish for oil prices. The US Department of Energy will unveil its weekly oil stocks change this afternoon, and if it points to another pick-up that could call into question a seasonal increase for fuel in the US. That scenario could be oil-bearish and OPEC might be forced to rethink its strategy. The consensus indicate a decline by 2.3 million barrels, markets’ expectations might be distorted a bit though due to the API’s release.
- 7:00 pm BST - FED’s rate decision: There is no doubt the most important event to watch for today is the FED’s meeting. At the same time, there will be released rate decision, a statement and the so-called dot-chart (a chart depicting where each FED’s member see FED funds rate in a specific year), all the abovementioned should be scrutinized be investors. The street’s call suggests the FED should hike by 25 bps.
- 7:30 pm BST - Janet Yellen’s press conference: After the release of many figures at 7:00 pm, there will be time for Janet Yellen to take her floor. As usual, each her word could exert pressure on the greenback and other correlated assets. The utmost will be what she’ll say about a recent streak of really disappointing data from the US.
The GBPUSD could be the main mover in the FX space as both UK’s data and a slew of financial events from the US could affect the pair. From a technical standpoint, one could expect the pair could continue its uptrend after the breakout of a key resistance zone. Source: xStation5