- ECB panel the most awaited event following a rally on EURUSD
- Oil prices will be sensitive to the DOE report as a new upward trend could be forming
President of the ECB Mario Draghi did what many thought he’d do at the June meeting (and they became disappointed). He hinted at monetary policy reversal and caused huge moves on the euro and to lesser extent of the European equities. Now the markets want to know more so the ECB policy panel is the most awaited event in today’s calendar:
- 8:30am BST - Fed’s Williams speaks - he had a speech yesterday underling soft inflation so that could be a warning sign for the US dollar, not likely to be a major market momver
- 2:30pm - ECB policy panel with Draghi, Carney (Bank of England), Kuroda (Bank of Japan) and Poloz (Bank of Canada) - is that a good opportunity for Draghi to extend his yesterday’s remarks? No, this is a place for a more general discussions but the market are now so eager to get more that they will mince every word. Besides, where do you get 4 major central bankers at the same place and time? Watch out for swings on the EURUSD.
- 3pm US, pending home sales - not a major release but since a solid rebound is expected (+1% m/m) markets could pay attention. We recall at this opportunity that yesterday’s CB index finally registered a positive surprise following a streak of disappointments from the US economy.
- 3:30pm - DOE report on US oil inventories - markets expect inventory draw of nearly 2.2 mb but the API report pointed at a modest build. When we look at oil prices, an attempt to form a new positive trend could be spotted. However, if that is about to persist, the DOE should show a better picture that the API. These reports have had a major impact on oil prices recently.