- it could be the key day for the EURUSD with ECB minutes and the ADP release
- oil prices await the DOE report
- Trump’s in Europe, could he repair his image on the old continent?
Thursday is literally packed up with economic releases that could affect markets in a significant way. We have crucial macroeconomic data from the US, ECB minutes and the DOE report on oil inventories - and that’s just the key ones. Let’s analyse them case by case:
12:30pm BST - ECB minutes - the June ECB meeting was highly anticipated because some kind of shift from the Bank was expected as the economic situation in the euro zone improved. This ended in a disappointment but let us recall that president Draghi has sharpened his narrative since then. Therefore markets will want to know if there was discussion about removing some of the policy accommodation and when such steps could be announced. The minutes could have potentially a game-changing impact on the euro.
1:15pm - US ADP report - the report measures changes in private employment is treated as the closest gauge ahead of the key NFP report that is about to be released tomorrow. While the report failed miserably last month (showing a giant increase in employment that was not confirmed by the NFP) investors will pay attention anyway. Consensus is for a rise in private employment of 185k.
12:30pm to 3pm - other US data - we have a long list of US reports today other than the API, it starts from the challenger report on job cuts (12:30) then we have trade data and initial claims (both 1:30) and we finish with non-manufacturing ISM (3pm). The last report is the most important from this list as it’s a solid activity gauge and another piece of the data ahead of the NFP
1:30pm - data from Canada: trade balance and building permits - the Bank of Canada meeting is just around the corner (next week) and since there’s a good chance for interest rate hike, investors pay attention to all macro releases
4pm - US DOE report on oil inventories - we pointed out at a strong API release in our Asia wrap today (here) so there’s a good chance that inventory draw for oil will be higher than the market expects (1.78mb). A confirmation of big draws suggested by API (5+mb for both oil and gasoline) could reverse fortunes for the oil market that saw a nasty selloff yesterday.
Politics - Trump in Poland and the G20 meeting. Donald Trump could make a keynote speech in Poland today as press speculates he tries and mend his relationship with Europe. He’s heading to Hamburg later on for the G20 meeting where a much awaited meeting with Putin will take place. References to the fx are not expected but with Trump you never know what could happen.